Predictions For The New Year

Predictions For The New Year
1 Jan 13

As much as I would love to have a crystal ball, I don’t have one and I have no other means of peering into the future either. The best I can do in these matters is use my experience thus far, what has happened historically, and knowing about the developments in technology progress in a few vital fields. Pretty much what anyone in the tech press can do, if they apply themselves to actually think and not just manufacture digital manure.

Sadly, we are subjected to a swath of poorly thought through articles about where company X will go in the next twelve months, and how product Y will change or not change in that same period of time. Of course, not everyone is guilty of the nonsense so many allegedly serious sources of technology journalism churn out on a regular basis, but a good part of the mainstream press very much is.

But lack of proximity to any arbitrary time event like New Year’s doesn’t stop people from making the most outrageous and unlikely predictions possible. No, no. As long as there is a hit-count quota to fill for the day, we can expect to see nincompoopery spread out over the whole year. Whispers from “trusted sources” and “people familiar with the matter” will heard by the ever open ears of the usual suspects, which I will refrain from mentioning by name here. In comes the greater Internet echo-chamber and the endless spinning of rumors, vague or otherwise, and before long the oozing substance is being poured into the eyes of regular people.

One thing won’t change much over the next 12 months, as much as I would like it to. I firmly believe that tech journalism will remain about the same as it has for the last couple of years, ever chasing the new shiny and forgetting about what we have, not to mention utility or what the average person could benefit from it.

Personally I think the whole of technology will improve at the same steady pace as it has for years, and that consumer electronics will be the same polarizing field to look at as previously. There could be something to shake up the industry as a whole, but right it’s impossible to say what. A brand new form factor for computational devices seems unlikely given the current success of smartphones, tablets and ultrabooks. Those are still fresh and attractive enough that any “next generation” stuff will be left in the oven for a while longer before it’s released.

Going beyond that, I’d say it’s foolish to speculate unless you have some very, very good insights into a specific product that will achieve that oh-so-desirable disruption of any given market. Naturally, common sense has never stopped the combined body of tech journalists from driving a proverbial tractor out on a limb. Anyone can make insane speculation, few get it right, and many end up with eggs on their face, at least in a digital manner.

 

Robert Falck

Robert is a freelance tech writer from Sweden. You can follow his posts here on the British Tech Network, listen to him yap away on the British Tech iOS Show and read even more of his stuff on his site streakmachine.com or you can even follow him on twitter @streakmachine. (But you won’t find him on Facebook!)

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Robert Falck

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