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Since Thunderbolt was announced a while back and Apple started delivering machines with the new technology built in, there have been some concerns raised over the validity or future prospect of Thunderbolt. Currently there is practically no peripherals that support Thunderbolt, although many are on the way from a variety of manufacturers. You can't even get something as basic as a Thunderbolt cable right now, which has to be a new record for an available technology.

One could argue that Thunderbolt is the next generation FireWire and USB 3.0 is, well, the next generation USB. They respectively have their own advantages and shortcomings, as has been the case with both FireWire and USB since those technologies were created. They cater to specific goals and those goals don't necessarily overlap as much as we might want to think.

The possibilities in the Thunderbolt technology is quite impressive, boasting very high data transfer speeds that USB 3.0 is not able to match. It's when we talk about backwards compatibility that USB 3.0 really gets the advantage, since all the devices from the dawn of USB ought to work still. Given the choice of the Mini DisplayPort as the connector for Thunderbolt any eventual failure of the technology to catch on wouldn't result in anything nasty for the end customer. All you see is still the same old Mini DisplayPort as we have been seeing since 2008, no difference there.

In an ideal Apple world, I'd bet there would only be Thunderbolt ports on the future Macs, with audio ports and a MagSafe connector being the only other holes in the sides. Possibly not even the audio port. If we look at it from a space saving feature that would enable all machines to have ridiculously fast I/O and still have room for an SD slot even in the smallest MacBook Air. If anything, that's something Jony Ive and his team must be thrilled to be able to design with. An already sturdy and stable construction could be even more streamlined and minimalistic while retaining all the flexibility most people could want.

When you look at what could be done with Thunderbolt, it's nothing short of impressive. We could theoretically buy external graphics cards if the need arises and huge storage solutions with ridiculous transfer speeds are very realistic. For professionals this must be a wet dream! No longer having to wait around for transfers of huge files. If regular consumers ever see any use of Thunderbolt is a bit more of an open topic right now. I think that depends on how fast Thunderbolt catches on with other computer manufacturers and what kind of peripherals make it to market with a reasonable price. USB will probably be dominant for most things, it's just too ubiquitous and cheap to manufacture.

In the case of Thunderbolt not catching on in the wide market space I do still think it will be available for the foreseeable future on every Mac, both portable and stationary. The one really nasty possibility would be a lack of standard connectors, as with the rumored Sony implementation of Thunderbolt in a USB type-A port. If anything, we don't need the confusion of different technologies hiding in connectors meant for other technologies. More adapters is not something we need as we move forward into the future.

One interesting question is if Apple will start making Thunderbolt cables for iOS devices. Now that iOS 5 is going very wireless it seems more and more unlikely, but should it happen it would probably be the fastest sync any of us have yet to see. I know I would love to shovel a large amount of data over to my iPhone in no-time, specially if it's already on my computer. If Thunderbolt was available in parallel with the introduction of the Mini DisplayPort it would probably have happened, but now the move is towards cutting the cable, even it it's a very fast cable.

The two technologies doesn't have to take each other out and I personally think they can co-exist just fine in all the currently existing ecosystems. My hope is that Apple will adopt the USB 3.0 standard before long, although I fear it might take some more time now that Thunderbolt is the "best" in their eyes. I can't think of any reason why it's not already available on all Macs in all honesty. It is more than a little unlikely that Apple could skip USB 3.0 entirely and just go for Thunderbolt when so many things already exist and support USB in all its forms. Not even Apple can ignore all the millions upon millions of devices that talk USB, which will be around for a long time to come.

The main thing to consider is that the battle is far, far from decided yet. I would say it's barely gotten started, despite that USB 3.0 has been around for a fairly long time. Thunderbolt is nothing more today than a Mini DisplayPort with hidden potential, but that could change sooner than we think. Right now it's all up to the manufacturers of peripherals to take it to the next level.

Robert Falck

Robert is a freelance tech journalist from Sweden. You can follow his posts here on Bagel Tech and on his site streakmachine.com or you can follow him on twitter @StreakMachine.